CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 12Z SUN 06/04 - 06Z MON 07/04 2003
ISSUED: 06/04 12:31Z
FORECASTER: VAN DER VELDE

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS CZECH REPUBLIC

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS ROMANIA

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS ADRIATIC SEA AREA

SYNOPSIS

HUGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM NORWAY TO SPAIN AND REMAINS IN THIS POSITION DURING THE FORECAST TIME, WHILE AT THE EAST SIDE COLD AIR IS BEING ADVECTED SOUTHWARDS AND IS CURRENTLY REACHING THE ADRIATIC SEA. A LARGE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED OVER EASTERN EUROPE AND IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHWARD. STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT IN THIS ENTIRE AREA. THE JETSTREAM CURVES AROUND THE ULL FROM SWEDEN-GERMANY-ALPS-ITALY-GREECE-BULGARIA.

DISCUSSION

...CZECH REPUBLIC...
GFS MODEL RUNS 12Z AND 00Z HAVE BOTH INDICATED SOME ENHANCED CAPE PRESENT OF THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME SFLOCS ARE CURRENTLY RECORDED FROM THE AREA. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.

...ROMANIA...
GFS MODEL INDICATES CAPE 75-150 J/KG OVER ROMANIA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CARPAT MOUNTAIN RANGE WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP. OTHER AREAS IN EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE MAY SEE SOME SPORADIC THUNDER OUTSIDE OF THE DESIGNATED GEN TSTMS AREAS.

...ADRIATIC SEA AREA...
AS COLD AIR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE ADVECTED OVER THE AREA, EXPECT TO SEE SOME TSTMS DEVELOP OVER THE REGION, FED BY THE RELATIVELY WARM SEA WATER. AS THE JETSTREAM IS NEARBY, ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD BE PRESENT FOR A FEW MINI SUPERCELLS, BUT LOW STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY AND 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES DO NOT SEEM TO BE SUPPORTIVE... EXPECT THE SUPERCELL CHANCE TO BE VERY LOW. SOME SMALL HAIL IS ANTICIPATED.

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